Creativity, Luck & The Unknown Unknown-Nancy Hillis MD and Bruce Sawhill PhD
Creativity, Luck & The Unknown Unknown
The following blog post is constructed from conversations between myself and my partner, Dr. Bruce Sawhill, Stanford educated theoretical physicist and mathematician.
A week and a half ago, Bruce was swimming with two friends in the ocean here in Northern California, putting in thousands of yards (meters) through the chilly gray-green water. They usually swim in the pool, but since all of the pools are closed on account of COVID-19, they have been sent (exiled) to the ocean.
Fortunately, the ocean is an easy one-mile (1.6 km) bike ride away.
The nearest access point features a great arc of sand divided by a long pier full of touristy fish restaurants.
One side is a cozy cove beloved by swimmers and beginner surfers and overlooked by a large and blocky hotel from the 1960s. The other side is long and straight and fronts an historic boardwalk and amusement park.
On this particular day, the three intrepid swimmers decided to walk under the pier pilings and swim the long straight part of the beach, a bracing effort in 57F/14C water without wetsuits.
After a down-and-back, they felt they hadn’t covered enough distance, so Bruce and one of them decided to swim around the Wharf.
Santa Cruz Wharf
This wharf is one of the longest on the US West coast, protruding 800 yards (meters) out into the Pacific.
At the end of it, you feel you are “at sea.”
Bruce’s Story: Black Swans, White Sharks & The Nature Of Happenstance
As we got near the end of the pier, something shot under us. We looked at each other and said, “What was that?”
I was getting hungry so my subconscious decided it was a salmon, since King salmon are in season and delicious, broiled with a honey-mustard glaze and served over rice.
Another sleek form shot past, and it was clear that it was a seal, a curious whiskered dog face looking at the two strange goggled interlopers with bright swim caps.
Sea Lion
As we rounded the end of the Wharf, we were mobbed by sea creatures, 20 or 30 seals and sea lions.
Santa Cruz Wharf Sea Lions
What was fun and interesting became threatening just on account of sheer numbers and commotion.
They were swimming around us, breaching, hurtling under us so closely that we felt the pulse of water as they sped by. They weren’t aggressive, but they certainly weren’t “social distancing”, either.
We thought of the old adage,
If you see a shark, you don’t have to out swim it, you only have to out swim the other swimmers.
Several tons of marine mammals must look like a smorgasbord to sharks, and if one were to approach, they’d be gone in a flash, leaving…us.
Great White Shark
Our calm athletic equilibrium deteriorated into hyperventilation and looking frantically in all directions at once while crashing into each other and lurching off in random directions.
We sprinted for a couple of boats at anchor about 200 yards (meters) away with the theme music of “Jaws” playing in our heads, and our flippered flash mob lost interest.
On the plus side, we realized we weren’t cold anymore.
Four hours later, after a hot tub and eating everything in sight to replace the prodigious caloric loss, a bit of news came across my phone.
A surfer had been killed by a shark in our County.
It was about 15 km south of where we were swimming, but that is an easy watery commute for a shark.
After looking up historical records, I discovered to my surprise that this was the first fatality in recorded history in Santa Cruz County, though there have been plenty of kayak nudges, surfboard bites, fin sightings, and other heart-attack inducing behaviors over the years.
Given how popular our bit of coastline is for surfing and playing, I was surprised that this was the first fatality in 150 years.
I didn’t sleep well that night. Might I have had a close call?
The Nature Of Luck
Being of a mathematical turn of mind, I started thinking about the nature of luck, especially the bad kind.
Statisticians will gleefully tell you that you have a much higher probability of dying in a traffic accident on the way to the beach than dying from a shark bite.
In fact, even such rational behaviors as urinating on high voltage power lines or standing on top of moving subway cars (“subway surfing”) have a higher death rate than shark attacks.
But when you’re stroking through murky cold water and can’t see the bottom and shore is a quarter-hour of hard work away, this is not comforting.
Trying not to think about sharks is like trying not to think about elephants after someone says, “Don’t think about elephants.”
Then there’s also what probability theorists call “selection bias”.
All probabilities are composed of a numerator that counts a particular kind of event (people who have experienced shark bites) divided by a denominator that is a larger class of events (total number of people over some geography, for instance).
If the denominator is too generic and includes lots of people like farmers in Kansas who do not frequent shark-infested waters, this is not helpful to people who do.
If the denominator is “all slightly crazy people who swim miles in the ocean without wetsuits”, the numbers don’t look as good.
Chambers of commerce don’t like those statistics and tend to suppress them, which is selection bias in action.
Your Brain Is Wired To Calculate Risk
Whether you’re a mathematician or not, your brain is always evaluating risk.
“Should I cross this street against the light? I don’t see any traffic” goes through a complex evaluation with conscious and unconscious components.
The conscious part thinks back to similar situations.
The reptilian and unconscious part of one’s brain contains particular neurons that are able to make fast decisions, and to be able to do that, they have to be able to work with incomplete data and do it quickly.
Stopping and thinking only works when you can stop.
Conscious selection bias for the purpose of manipulation of others is dangerous and reprehensible, but not as dangerous as unconscious selection bias, where we don’t even know we’re fooling ourselves or others.
Again, it’s the difference between the unknown and the unknown unknown.
We may be choosing what realities our world is made out of and not even be aware that we are doing so.
In real life, isn’t data always incomplete?
Complete data is the province of controlled scientific experiments, and life is open-ended and not controlled.
Perhaps you’ve seen the humorous sign,
This life is a test. It is only a test. If it had been a real life, you would have been given further instructions as to where to go and what to do.
A good example of how this bias manifests is due to Nassim Taleb, a probability theorist and financier who coined the term “black swan.”
Black Swan
Black Swans & The Nature Of Happenstance
The idea is that no number of white swan observations can prepare you for a black swan, particularly if you don’t even know they exist.
Black swans are not even a category until you see one!
So if you live in a world of incomplete data and unknown unknowns, how do you survive and thrive?
Is there a way of biasing luck so that you have more of it? Can luck be engineered?
Engineering Luckiness
About 20 years ago, Dr. Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire in the UK decided to investigate the differences between people who considered themselves lucky and those who didn’t.
They found several hundred people, half of whom considered themselves lucky and the other half unlucky.
They did a controlled experiment of having them all buy cheap lottery tickets, looking for bias. Not surprisingly, winning lottery tickets did not correlate with perceived luckiness.
Further investigation in this decade-long study discovered two key features of luckiness that were ultimately published in his book The Luck Factor.
The first was that the “lucky” people had a lot of acquaintances in addition to close friends.
The Power Of Weak Ties
This corroborated groundbreaking research of the 1970s where a social scientist named Mark Granovetter discovered that weak ties, such as acquaintances, are more than just peripheral, they provide the glue that connects constellations of separate and tightly connected groups.
Social Network Map Showing Strong & Weak Ties
If you want to explore beyond your backyard, acquaintances are your guide.
This is not to devalue close friends, but it is important to note that close friends are less likely to deliver surprise because you know them so well already.
Cultivating Surprise
The second idea is that of a kind of “structured surprise.” Lucky people did not over schedule their lives, but left gaps that could be seredipitously filled.
They would engage in such behaviors as taking a different path to a store or to work, just because.
This was about leaving space for the unknown unknown.
How can these lessons be applied to the world of creativity?
The first lucky lesson, that of acquaintances, translates into having a passing familiarity with other creatives in your field, whether they be opera composers, painters, photographers, or screenwriters.
Not knowing them so well as to consciously emulate them, but well enough to take in what they have to offer and to walk through the doors they have opened ahead of you.
This is the realm of lineage.
The second lucky lesson translates into being open minded, being observant and doing experiments.
This is about making space for something new to fall in- and you don’t know ahead of time what it will be. This is indicated in the German phrase: las was einfallen. Literally, let something fall in.
The structured surprise is another word for the adjacent possible.
It is not so remote a reality as to be completely unrecognizable, but its adjacency means that it has one foot in your current reality and thereby allows you to take in something new and relate it to the familiar.
Lessons From Feynman
Richard Feynman, Cal Tech, 1988
Years ago, Bruce was at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center attending a seminar given by the eminent physicist, Dr. Richard Feynman.
He talked about the strange behaviors and interpretations of probability in quantum physics.
Bruce remembers Feynman saying:
If you have an infinite number of things, each of which is infinitely unlikely, something will happen.
Richard Feynman
The language of probability is a structure that we impose on the continuous flow of events in existence, in life.
Probability is a ratio as discussed above in the discussion about shark attacks.
When we step into the Unknown Unknown, the concept of probability becomes less potent because the numerator and denominator are nebulous.
Luck involves our attitude about the unknown.
People who consider themselves lucky structure their life in a way that allows for surprise. They make space for the Unknown Unknown.
This is what you need to do in your creative life as well.
The Unknown Unknown is calling you.
Will you make space for the mystery?
With gratitude from my studio to yours,
Nancy
P.S. Leave us a comment and let us know your thoughts
Nancy Hillis’ new book: The Artist’s Journey Creativity Reflection Journal
The Artist’s Journey: Bold Strokes To Spark Creativity by Nancy Hillis, MD is available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Bookshop Santa Cruz and Book Depository.
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For most of my life I won so many little “lotteries” at school, church, theaters and etc. that it was almost embarrassing! This went on until I was about 50, I think and then it just stopped! I haven’t won anything in a long time. I wonder why. Certainly all the laws of nature apply to me but somehow I also believe there is some tiny psychic thing going on when the person picks a name out of a hat and you are right there in the audience. Is there some pull that can cause them to draw the luckiest person’s name? It used to seem that way. Some days I feel especially lucky when I get a special happy feeling about what colors to use. Or how to begin a painting that turns out well. Is that in the same realm>
Gwen
Hi Gwen,
I have a feeling that if we stay open to possibilities, if we cultivate surprise, if we take more risks (as Wayne Gretsky said: You miss all of the shots you don’t take)- we increase the chances of something akin to “luck” happening….the “happy accidents” in painting…It’s like we’re running simulations and the more simulations we run, the more likely something is going to “work out”. In any case, just some thoughts.
Warmly,
Nancy
HI Darlin’,,,,,,,,,I just lost my first writing attempt here??? so forgive if this is a repeat,,,
Ah well,,,,,,Las Was Einfallen,,,,(thanks for that…..,with smiles,,,)
My comment is about making inks from graveyard bouquets,
A British friend once excitedly showed me her latest acquisition for her art collection. It was a small delicate painting done with
the use of “graveyard bouquets”….She told me that there is a special art category for these paintings,,,,
Something like “penny art”, indicating the paints, or inks were made by the artists who were too poor to afford anything else.
This art became unique enough to become a category all it’s own!
Perhaps one of your many readers would know the name of this category??
I always enjoy reading your columns, Sugarlump, and learn so much!
Gratefully
Anne Ferguson
WOW,,,Bruce has really earned that awesome story!
hi Nancy loved your story as I am fascinated by quantum physics and moving with the unknown unknown. I am a bit less enthusiastic about the habits of sharks, we must have bolder sharks than found off the Californian coast. 🙂
Just one question is the term Unknown Unknown the same as “what you don’t know about what you don’t know”? (that”s a term I am familiar with) I love the Feynman quote. Cheers Amanda
Hi Amanda,
Thank you! I know what you mean about sharks and I’ve heard about the aggressive sharks in Australia!
Yes, the Unknown Unknown is indeed the “you don’t know what you don’t know”- whereas with the Unknown, we’re talking about the experience of not knowing…and knowing that we don’t know.
I love Feynman’s quotes too!
Warmly,
Nancy
Hi Nancy,
This is a very deep reflection about destiny, fear and life indeed.
Thank you so much!
For me, the best approach to uncertainty (the unknown) always will be Attitude.
Regards,
Luis
Hi Luis,
Thank you for your kind words and for being here.
Yes, I relate to what you wrote about attitude Luis.
Warmly,
Nancy
It seems I am always living in the unknown unknown. I am not lucky, but I will never give up on my creative endeavors and always push myself for that surprise. That thing I create that give me joy to continue my journey.
Thank you Nancy for your shared articles and your inspiration to move forward…..I do have both books for the Artist Journey and look forward to your daily emails.
Again. 🙏 thank you
Hi Valerie,
I love that- always pushing yourself for that surprise!
Thank you so much for being on this journey with me Valerie!
Warmly,
Nancy
Thank you for the article-I enjoyed it. I remember struggling with a “Higher Power“ concept- and after much intellectualizing I came to the same conclusion- I must accept and learn to leave room for, indeed to LOVE mystery. I decided to embrace the mysteries of God, of Love, of Life. I discovered it was a HUGE relief. My art growth process is traveling that same route- thanks for the confirmation and reminder. I gotta leave room for mystery, and be totally OK with it. Peace.
Hi Amy,
You’re welcome. Thank you for being here! Yes! Leaving room for the mystery!
Warmly,
Nancy
Dear Nancy, I just love your blogs – so thoughtful and engaging. I live in the land of the black swan (Western Australia), so seeing white swans is unusual for me! I recently heard about the black swan theory, and sure, there was a time I had never heard of or seen a black swan, until I came to this country from UK 40+ years ago. Thank you for yours and Bruce’s thoughtful reflections – I totally resonate with other comments about discovering the artist in themselves late in life, as I did: an evolution that generated from my children’s wonder about life and their requests to me to draw… birds, horses, sharks. I would NOT let them hear: “I can’t draw” (which is what I had told myself for decades), and I am so pleased I encouraged that exploration in them, and followed it myself. As for luck, I have it all the time! And tell me, when you look at that diagram of social networks, does it pulsate? It does for me! You evoke such rich conversation in your blogs – thank you!
Dear Iris,
Thank you so much! Oh wow! That’s amazing that you get to see the black swans and that it’s the white swans that are unusual in your part of the world.
That’s a beautiful story about how you fostered creativity in yourself and your children.
Oh yes!!! I love that picture of social networks! I think it’s elegant and gorgeous. Yes! The pulsating energy of it!!!! Thank you again for your lovely note and for being here.
Warmly,
Nancy
Nancy, I must say, you always give me a lot to think about with these postings. Truly amazing and brings a new way of looking at things. You have given me new vision in the knowledge you share. So much if this can be applied to every aspect of our lives. The first story about the swimming was a jaw dropper!
Katra,
Thank you so much. I’m delighted that my writings are enlightening to you. I appreciate your being here! Yes! That was a scary story!
Warmly,
Nancy
Nancy thank you. As always i am challenged by your thinking and enjoy trying to relate mathematical concepts to living-not my experience in school llght-years ago.
Perhaps you were lucky hat you chose not to wear wetsuits as you then looked less seal-like and so less interesting for sharks.
The song ‘Luck be a lady tonight’ is swirling in my head at the moment, I have found it ebbs and flows but the more positive i feel the more she appears. Over this covid time I have found connectivity discovering the thoughts and works of many artists who have been so generous in sharing.
Hi Sally,
You’re welcome. Thank you for being here. Yes, it’s interesting to explore the intersections of art, science, mathematics and more. That’s great that you’ve found connectivity during this time of COVID19.
Warmly,
Nancy
interesting piece! what about intention? I have heard someone say he is lucky because he believes he is lucky and continually reminds himself that he is lucky and he has told some amazing stories of his good fortune. I have also read ages ago in a book called “a whack on the side of the head” (forget the author’s name) that after doing a creativity study that the only determining factor was whether people considered themselves to be creative or not. Guess what those who considered themselves creative were creative and vice versa. I thought you might be going there with the “lucky” concept. Lots of food for thought and that is always a good thing!
Hi Carole,
Thanks. Yes, the self fulfilling prophesy. I’m glad I surprised you by not going into familiar territory.
Indeed, lots to think about.
Warmly,
Nancy
Nancy, thanks for the presentation. Just reading your article is another example of how I am curious about things about which I had a little knowledge. I feel very fortunate In that my earliest memories are of a contradiction between my experience having growing up as a little white boy in the south with having a “ Colored nanny“ and my love of her being in contradiction to the culture in which I was living. Following this unknown and trying to understand it has led me too putting together with being programmed to be a physician into psychiatry. Then on retirement 19 years ago I continued with what I wanted to understand, going back to school to get all the art history and studio art classes I could . Again a new world opened to me with the place of yoga and meditation.. Then was an appreciation of the world beyond which there is a name, and beyond the know . Putting this all together is where I am now in trying to bridge that gap between the known as to material and technique with the unknown and beyond having a name
Hi Jim,
You’re welcome. Thank you for being here. Your story growing up and now your exploration into your art and into the unknown sounds fascinating. All the best to you on your journey.
Warmly,
Nancy
After reading your post I thought about all the time I had sat down to create something with nothing in mind or just let random ideas guide my art, or about the times I set out to do something deliberate and had a happy accident that changed my painting for the better. I think one has to be open to these random events, that’s part of the mystery!
Hi Jen,
Yes! I love those happy accidents and allowing for surprise too! Thank you for being here.
Warmly,
Nancy
I just have to tell you how much I enjoy, cherish(!), your blogs. Your intelligence, and that of your partner, is obvious, but your stories filled with insight, humor and humanity have really been a gift. And especially now when I personally feel so often removed and disappointed in the present actions of so many people who just do not care about others. I am finding so much solace in my painting, my ‘alternate’ reality. I just joked to my husband that ‘social distancing’ feels a godsend to me right now! And then to read about the importance of acquaintances relating to luck and doors opening! Which has so often been evident to me throughout my life looking back.
Thank you both and what an incredibly impactful ‘team’ you are! And so blessed with both right and left brain gifts!
My best, Denise
Hi dear Denise!
Ah..thank you so much for your lovely comments. It’s indeed a blessing to have a partner where I can have these kinds of conversations.
I totally resonate with your experience of how painting brings solace, especially in these times. Thank you for being here.
Warmly,
Nancy
Great article! I am among the % of people whose eyes glaze over at the mention or sight of NUMBERS. Statistics come next on by ‘bad list’ for obvious reasons Nonetheless, I enjoyed your discussion as it gave me a confidence that lurked below the surface somewhere. I have a granddaughter who is so totally a control freak it’s hard to enjoy her company for long. And a perfectionist also. On the other hand I am not interested in being in control of things and enjoy being the flexible one in the family group. That at last, is finally showing itself in my painting…and I find this article encouraging! Thank you both!
Hey Margery!
Thank you! Ha! I got a kick out of what you said about numbers. I’m delighted that you find the article encouraging. I love how your flexibility is showing up in your art! Yay!!!
Warmly,
Nancy
Dear Nancy,
As always, you have come up with some very interesting and soul searching things to meditate on and enjoy thinking about. I have often thought about “the things we don’t know we don’t know”. and this is certainly what you are talking about here. The thing that I try to do in my own life is to be open to whatever comes my way as a “prick” of interest and then act on it. “I think I learned that from you in the first times that I took your classes a few years ago! Just yesterday I came across a person online who is teaching how to make art materials; ink out of flowers! J and food, drawing instruments out of sticks etc. I am taking that up now. It will fit in somewhere in my life!
Just like your words!! Blessings and thanks., Diane :
Dear Diane,
It’s always lovely to see you here! Yes! Be open to the creative impulses…they’re subtle and easily missed or dismissed. Wow! That sounds so exciting about making ink out of flowers! I’d love to hear more!
Blessings to you too dear Diane!
With love,
Nancy
What an experience! Definitely found myself thinking. As I do not think about luck for myself I don’t make room for the unknown. I don’t allow for surprise. Everything I do is structured. Gives me something to think about.
Hey Doreen! I’m delighted that the post gave you something to think about! It’s a powerful thing to make room for surprise.
Warmly,
Nancy
Love this. Especially “las was einfallen.”
Thank you
Thank you Dana. I love that German saying too!
Warmly,
Nancy
Also an additional though – my beloved grandmother from Russia always said”you should always have luck”
How appropos
Yes, it sure is! Wise woman.
That was remarkable
I am a fairly new painter(colorist landscape, stylist fashion and abstract) .
That story and those concepts really resonated with me.
I was a sociology major – psychology minor.
I purchased your first book but not the others because none of the references worked in the book.
This though was truly amazing…
Thank you Judith. I’m delighted that you enjoyed the post.
As for the references in the first book, I assume you’re referring to the links that take you to the library of videos. Please write to support@nancyhillis.com and my team will help you access them.
Warmly,
Nancy
wow – one thought is: Shows how important a healthily agnostic understanding of the 12-step program could be – leaving room for surprise… I once ended up a 12-step group visiting (as it said ‘open’ on the web page so I would be allowed as a visitor… and I learned that this group definitely had humour as their higher power. That was five yrs ago and I have not laughed so much since. Good-natured self-deprecation being the most uplifting aspect of 12-step humour -. Well, at the end of the meeting, I learned that the ‘open’ indicator had been a mistake by the online admin, and the mistake was acknowledged a happy one by all. (Web page info was changed not long after.) That was one lucky Sunday night.
Thanks Barbara. I love the story about the 12-step program and the happy “mistake”. Humor is a powerful and wonderful thing. Thanks for being here and writing.
Warmly,
Nancy